President Biden will not pick up any additional support if former President Donald Trump is found guilty of a crime and imprisoned before the 2024 election, according to a poll shared exclusively with The Post Thursday.
Trump, 77, would lose his one-point lead (46% to 45%) over Biden, 81, if he is found guilty of any of the 88 criminal charges he currently faces — but all his support would shift to undecided rather than the incumbent, the nationwide survey by Leger shows.
Should the former president be found guilty and imprisoned, just 37% of Americans would vote for him — while 39% would cast a ballot for him if he is convicted but serves no prison time.
In either of those cases, 18% of respondents said they did not know who they would support while 45% said they would vote for Biden if Trump did hard time and 44% said they would vote Democrat if Trump was convicted but served no time.
Trump would fare slightly better if not found guilty of a crime, with 46% of US adults saying they would vote for him and 44% saying they would vote for Biden.
Among Republicans, 15% of respondents said they would shift to undecided if Trump is found guilty and imprisoned, while 9% said they would do the same if the former president were convicted without jail time. or guilty without imprisonment (9%).
Meanwhile, 6% of self-described Republican voters said they would back Biden if Trump was convicted and imprisoned, 5% said they would support the incumbent even if Trump was acquitted, and 4% said they would vote Democrat if Trump was convicted but not incarcerated.
Trump is currently on trial in Manhattan on 34 counts of business fraud after he allegedly concealed “hush money” payments to a porn star to cover up a decade-old affair during the 2016 election campaign.
Notably, just 21% of respondents said they were monitoring that trial closely, while 42% said they were “more or less” watching for its outcome and 34% said they were “not at all” paying attention.
Trump is also facing two federal indictments for alleged interference in the 2020 election and alleged mishandling of national security documents after leaving office, along with an indictment in Georgia for attempting to reverse his electoral loss there.
The Leger poll shows Trump’s lead widening in a potential five-way race with Biden, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West.
If that election were held today, Trump would receive 41% of the vote, Biden would get 38%, RFK Jr. would nab 7% and Stein and West would collect 2% and 1%, respectively.
The survey also shows Biden’s approval rating remains well underwater, with 51% disapproving of his job as president and 38% approving. The remaining 11% were unsure of their response.
If that election were held today, Trump would receive 41% of the vote, Biden would get 38%, RFK Jr. would nab 7% and Stein and West would collect 2% and 1%, respectively.
The president performs slightly better than the polling firm’s March survey, which found 53% disapproving and 33% approving of Biden’s work in office.
In better news for the Democratic incumbent, 55% rated their household finances as good and 42% rated them as poor.
More than half (56%) of Americans were also not concerned about losing their job in the next year, 44% said they were.
However, 58% of respondents still said the US was in an economic recession, compared with 25% who said it was not and 17% who were unsure.
Leger conducted the online survey April 26-28, polling 1,008 US adults with a plus-or-minus 3.09% margin of error.
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