In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, Democrats would need to gain four seats to take control of the chamber while the GOP — who can count on Vice President Vance to break a tie — could stand to lose no more than three.
In the traditionally more volatile House of Representatives, Democrats have a clear shot at gaining the majority, experts said. They have now seized a lead of 4 percentage points in polling on voters’ “generic” party preference for 2026, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
“Everything we’re seeing in the off-year election is consistent with a historical pattern that benefits the out party,” House redistricting guru David Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report, told The Post. “The president’s approval rating, the enthusiasm gap that we see between the parties — these are all factors in the Democrats’ favor.”
Retaking the House, where Republicans are gripping tight to their 220-213 majority, would give Democrats the ability to push their own tax and spending measures — and investigate or otherwise harass President Trump. The GOP got a tad more breathing room Dec. 2, after Republican Matt Van Epps held back a challenge by Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in a special election.
A dozen Republican-held seats are now positioned in the “toss-up” category — and each party holds a sizable war chest. The Democratic campaign arm had $47 million at the end of October, compared to $46 million for the Republicans.
“There’s really not that many competitive seats,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) told The Post. “A lot of the focus is on a handful of races. The money pouring into it is insane.”
“It’s a tough situation for Republicans, because Democrats don’t need to have an amazing night to take the House because the margin is so narrow,” said Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report.
Here are some of the top battlegrounds that will determine control:
US SENATE:
Maine
Democrats have been itching to take down Sen. Susan Collins (R) for years. But the powerful Senate Appropriations chair is a survivor. They gushed about Graham Platner, a former Army and Marine Corps vet and oyster farmer, until his Nazi-linked tattoo came to light this fall. (Platner said he was unaware of the symbolism and had it covered up). Gov. Janet Mills (D), 77, is Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) preferred candidate.
North Carolina
Democrats got their contender in former Gov. Roy Cooper in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). He currently leads former Trump-picked RNC chair Michael Whatley in an early Emerson poll, after Lara Trump stayed out of the race.
North Carolina
Michigan
Two Democrats — Rep. Haley Stevens, 42, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, 39 — are competing to see who will take on former former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Rogers, 62, previously served as the chair of the House Intelligence Committee but narrowly lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, by fewer than 20,000 votes, in 2024 while running for the Senate alongside Trump.
Georgia
Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for re-election as the Senate’s best funded — and most vulnerable — Democrat. He could benefit from a divided primary in a Republican-leaning state. Competing to take him on are Rep. Mike Collins (R), Rep. Buddy Carter (R), and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley.
Texas
Democrats have eyed Senate races in the Lone Star State for years, usually suffering disappointment. Sen. John Cornyn (R), 73, is seeking reelection. State AG Ken Paxton (R) leads him in a recent co/efficient poll, but carries more baggage while facing a divorce from his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, who cited “biblical grounds.” Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) decision to run makes a runoff almost certain.
New Hampshire