The ActiVote poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters between Aug. 16 and Sept. 22, shows Brown’s Republican challenger, businessman Bernie Moreno, 2.2 points ahead, 51.1% to 48.9%.
The other poll comes from RMG Research, which surveyed 781 likely voters from Sept. 18 to 20. Moreno leads by 2 points in this survey as well, 48% to Brown’s 46%.
Both polls show the race within their margins of error, +/- 4.9 points in the ActiVote poll and 3.5 points in RMG’s.
This Ohio Senate race has been labeled a toss-up since the very start, but Brown has maintained a 3- to 5-point edge in the polls before this data. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Brown a 3.8-point advantage.
“This is bad,” the Ohio Democratic Party said in a campaign fundraising email soon after the polls were released. “We can’t let Bernie Moreno gain any more ground — not if we want to keep the Senate blue.“
Analysts say Moreno’s bump likely comes down to three major factors:
Brown’s defeat would be another major blow to Ohio’s swing-state status, which has been in question for years as the state increasingly elects Republicans at the state and federal level.
The GOP controls all three branches of state government, plus the offices of its secretary of state, attorney general and treasurer.
Brown’s historically solid poll numbers and Ohio’s recent willingness to pass left-leaning ballot measures like marijuana legalization gave Dems some hope the state wasn’t completely lost to the GOP, but this good news for Moreno is another blow to the blue party.
“Sherrod Brown sold out his working-class base to toe the Democrat Party line,” said Philip Letsou, the spokesman for the House Republicans’ campaign arm.
“He’s been voting in lockstep with Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris for open borders, higher taxes, and anti-worker green energy policies. Now, after over 50 years of Brown in politics, Ohio voters are ready to send him home.”
Both the Moreno and Brown campaigns declined to comment for this story.
Both the Moreno and Brown campaigns declined to comment for this story.