“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%),” the data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight wrote on X, referencing his organization’s latest average of the president’s job approval numbers.
“Dropping out would be a big risk,” Silver argued. “But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk.”
“Are we there yet? I don’t know,” the polling guru acknowledged. “But it’s more than fair to ask.”
Silver has long been concerned with the 81-year-old incumbent’s ability to beat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
Silver caused a stir in February when he argued there might be Democrats who are better equipped to take on the 77-year-old former president. Last month, he suggested Biden should consider stepping aside.
“What’s clearer [in my opinion] is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country,” he said Monday.
Silver noted that Biden is in “MUCH worse shape,” in terms of polling, than he was in 2020 heading into Election Day, when he held leads in the swing states of Arizona, Florida Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Several recent surveys show Trump ahead of Biden in all of those states.
Silver suggested Biden’s age may be to blame for his lackluster support, calling it an “extremely understandable concern” for voters.
“Biden’s age is something voters are overwhelmingly consistent about mentioning in polls,” he said. “The concern has persisted through various phases of media vibes.”
“The side-by-side video comparisons of Biden now vs. e.g. 2012 are also extremely revealing,” Silver continued. “There’s been an obvious change.”
“I think it’s borderline gaslighting to imply it’s just a media/vibes thing.”
Silver noted that in his estimation, Trump should also consider dropping out.
“I think it’s borderline gaslighting to imply it’s just a media/vibes thing.”
“Biden would lose by 7 points,” the pollster said of a scenario in which the presumptive Republican nominee is not the party’s candidate for president.
The president has given no indication that he plans to step aside before his matchup with Trump.