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Trump bounces ahead of Biden in New Hampshire in 12-point swing from December: poll

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JUNE 22: Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Liacouras Center on June 22, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Earlier today Trump delivered remarks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference in Washington DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Trump narrowly edged out Biden 44% to 42%, while 4% said they would vote for Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. according to a St. Anselm College Survey Center poll.

That’s a sizable swing from last December when the same survey pegged Biden ahead with 49% to Trump’s 39% and Kennedy’s 8%.

Unlike that December poll, the most recent one does factor in the new crew of third-party contenders, including Libertarian Chase Oliver (0%), Green Party contender Jill Stein (1%), and Independent Cornel West (1%).

“Biden leads among voters who dislike both candidates. However, more Democratic voters are drifting toward independent candidates than their Republican counterparts,” New Hampshire Institute of Politics executive director Neil Levesque explained.

“While 89% of Republicans are solidly backing Trump, Biden secures the support of only 82% of Democrats.”

Still, Biden retains the advantage in the most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate of New Hampshire polling, with a 3 percentage point lead in a head-to-head matchup.

Trump, 78, has the advantage in the national RCP aggregate and in most of the key battleground states as well.

Despite having a Republican governor and legislature the GOP hasn’t won a presidential race in the Granite State since 2000. New Hampshire has a paltry four votes in the Electoral College.

However, the poll indicates that Trump is running more competitively than usual for Republicans in the presidential arena.

Problematic for Biden is his ability to corral liberal votes. Progressives have splintered this election cycle over the Israel-Hamas war and hundreds of thousands wrote in some iteration of “uncommitted” in protest of Biden’s support for the US ally.

“For Biden to succeed, he must solidify his support among very liberal voters. Currently, only 67% of this group supports him, with 15% still undecided,” Levesque continued.

“Trump, on the other hand, is faring better among moderates (44% to 38%), undeclared voters (40% to 38%), and swing voters (39% to 21%).”

Some analysts have observed that Democrats in competitive down-ballot races across the country are faring better than Biden.

“Trump, on the other hand, is faring better among moderates (44% to 38%), undeclared voters (40% to 38%), and swing voters (39% to 21%).”

In terms of favorability, Biden scored 39% favorable to 59% unfavorable, while Trump clocked in at 42% to 57%, per the poll.

Among the so-called double-haters, Biden scored 30% support, while Trump nabbed 13%, per the poll.

A key source of reluctance for voters when it comes to Biden is age with 45% saying it made them “less” or “much less” likely to back him, compared to 45% who said no difference and 9% who said “more” or “somewhat more” likely.

Meanwhile, when it comes to Trump’s conviction, 43% indicated it made them “less” or “much less” likely to vote for him, while 35% said “no difference,” and 22% suggested it made them “more” or “somewhat more” likely to back him.

The poll was taken between June 28–29, just after the Thursday debate between Trump and Biden that pushed consternation of the incumbent’s age to a fever pitch.

It sampled 1,700 votes and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

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