Earlier this summer, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released updated birth data for the previous year, revealing that the nation’s fertility rate decreased to fewer than 1.6 kids per woman, down from 2.1 kids per woman recorded in 2006, which is the rate the country needs to sustain its population.

The last two decades saw women increasingly delaying having children, or choosing not to have them at all. There are many factors fueling this trend, including personal and cultural, and one of them is the rising housing costs, according to some experts.

Data analyzed by Realtor.com® economists show that from 2006 to 2024, the financial burden of purchasing a home has grown dramatically.

In 2006, the median price of a single-family home was $221,923, which translates to about $343,806 in 2024 dollars when adjusted for inflation. By comparison, the median sale price in 2024 was $410,100, more than $66,000 higher in real terms than the 2006 equivalent.

Over the same 18-year period, the U.S. total fertility rate dropped from about 2.1 births per woman to just under 1.6 births.

“Larger homes that can comfortably accommodate multiple children have become increasingly out of reach for many families,” says Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones. “As prices have far outpaced wage growth, couples may delay homeownership or remain in smaller homes longer, limiting the space available for growing families.”

A study published by the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research in 2012 found that home prices have a significant impact on family planning.

In the research paper titled “House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby,” authors Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney write that a 10% jump in home prices leads to a 1% drop in births among non-homeowners in an average metro.

As part of the study, Dettling, principal economist with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and Schettini Kearney, then a research associate at the University of Notre Dame’s Department of Economics, looked at fertility rates of women ages 20 to 44 in 66 metros from 1990 through 2006.

During that 16-year stretch, U.S. birth rates remained relatively flat as average median home sale prices steadily increased.

The paper explains that rising home prices exert downward pressure on birth rates because they represent, on average, the largest expense associated with raising a child, far surpassing food, child care, and education.

So when the price of housing goes up, the cost of having children follows suit, leading some couples to pump the brakes on having kids, or to have fewer children over their lifetime. Additionally, the paper suggests that house price changes are even more important than unemployment rates in driving birth rates.

“House prices are a relevant factor in a couple’s decision to have a baby,” write Dettling and Schettini Kearney.

So when the price of housing goes up, the cost of having children follows suit, leading some couples to pump the brakes on having kids, or to have fewer children over their lifetime. Additionally, the paper suggests that house price changes are even more important than unemployment rates in driving birth rates.

Jones points out that for prospective parents, the financial stress of competing for scarce, expensive housing can make the prospect of having additional offspring “seem less feasible or even risky.”

On the other hand, for existing homeowners, rising home prices can actually spur a baby boom.

For the typical U.S. family, housing makes up a large portion of household wealth in the form of equity, so when home prices increase, the homeowners’ wealth grows as well. According to the paper, this can lead them to have children sooner and to have more of them.

On top of that, cash-strapped families who own a home can even use their equity to pay for child-related expenses such as schooling.

It’s important to note, however, that when it comes to national fertility rates, housing costs represent just one factor, which is why there are periods in recent history when both home prices and birth rates trended up at the same time.

Jones explains that in the early 2000s, expanding credit and economic growth made larger homes more attainable. Feeling financially secure, many Americans opted to welcome more children, even as home prices increased.

But from 2008 through 2011, both home prices and birth rates nosedived.